Back Up Plans (depressing post warning)

If you've noticed a decline in political posts lately it is for the simple reason that I can't watch the news for too long anymore before I get all sad and freaked out. Naturally, I'm a little less up on current events and the soap opera that the 24 hour news turns them into. I understand however that the big thing right now is the stimulus package. If it works, we still have years of recession to work through and a trillion dollars of debt to repay. If it doesn't work, nobody knows but I've heard everything from a second great depression to the government collapsing (I'll go ahead and say I think that if America had a valid presidential election during the civil war, the government will remain pretty sound through this too).

When I start to get worried about something I'll generally come up with a worst-case-scenario plan, so that I know that no matter how bad it gets, I'll at least know what to do. Here are some of my backup plans for various scenarios.

Scenario 1 - I can't find a job anywhere! I'll join the peace corps. For two years I will make almost no money, but I will be provided for and may even be able to get a graduate degree in the process. During two years the country will probably have started to recover, so by the time I get out I'll have two years good experience plus that possible extra degree. Other people might want to consider the military for better pay but I personally couldn't handle that.

Scenario 2 - Money Becomes Worthless Oh noes! Well, since I don't have that much right now at least I wouldn't be losing that much. I suppose I would squat in my house (or one near it) and try to get by. I would probably not work, since it would require paying for gas which I couldn't afford with the money I'd be making. It would be like a big camping trip, but with a house instead of a tent. I would likely team up with a group of my friends for more safety and better resources.

Scenario 3 - South Carolina Tries To Secede... Again This would make the fourth time it has been attempted. Anyway, I'd probably leave. New England here I come. (This one is really just an oddball possibility, don't take me too seriously)

Scenario 4 - Government Collapses Well... F*ck. I suppose I'll just have to do what everyone else does and survive. Again, probably team up with some amigos, maybe grow some vegetables, loot some grocery stores and play defend your castle for a while. At least it's not as cold as Russia...

Something Broke

Last September, there was a shortage of gas in the Southeast. There was a hurricane, and damaged pipelines and a lack of backup storage due to the switch from summer to winter grade fuel combined with the economic climate to create the perfect storm for a gas shortage. One morning I woke and turned on the news to see that my bank, Wachovia, was collapsing (or so the news reported at the time). I called my father to ask what I should do with my money. We talked for a bit and he asked if I was still visiting home this weekend. I told him no, probably not, since there was no gas in town. A friend's car was empty by this time, so three of us walked to the nearest gas stations with an empty can only to find them empty. Everyone was calling and texting friends from various neighborhoods, trying to find gas. The best we ever got were rumors. Lines at the stations that were open all filled with more cars than the stations could handle and most stations would only stay stocked for a day at best. I had to call out of work, which required a commute, and spent a few days walking to the store and school before I found a station near my house with gas (which was gouged to a full dollar over what the price should have been). I filled up and by the time I was out again the stations had been re-supplied. I was lucky.

It took three days for police to stop patrolling for parking ticket violations. Three days before the first bits of order started to chip away from society.

The Little Things: Inauguration Day

Everyone in the whole world is talking about the inauguration day and most of them are repeating themselves, but I have just a few things to add to the mix, and I'll try be as original as possible.

____First of all, I thought Rick Warren did a pretty good job with the prayer. It was a bit long, but he certainly did not seem to be using the occasion to push his own religious or political agenda. He did however make me (and all my friends) laugh hysterically at the way he said "Malia and SASHA!" This spiraled off into a game of who could say "SASHAAAaa!" with the most pizazz.
____The John Williams piece was beautiful, as expected. Simple gifts was beautifully arranged. I particularly enjoyed watching Yo-Yo Ma. He looked like he was having so much fun playing up there. The last three notes were crunch-tastic.
____So the speech... It was moving, it was nice, but honestly I felt like he's done better. I followed the campaign pretty closely from Iowa on, and my favorite speeches of his come mostly from the primaries (My tops were the Iowa victory speech, the now-famous "yes we can" speech, the South Carolina victory speech, and the election night speech). What I DID really notice and appreciate most from the speech however was the declaration that America is a friend to every nation who seeks peace and dignity. This stands in stark contrast to the "our way or the highway" (and by highway we mean lots of bombs) Bush era idea that only democracy was a valid system for a prosperous and peaceful country.
____None of the talking heads commented on it, but I definitely heard the crowd singing "Nananana, Nananana, hey hey hey, Good bye!" at Bush's helicopter as it circled capitol hill one last time. Poor guy. I mean, I do hope he knows that he let us down, and it was kind of a funny moment for spontaneous song, but he's retired now. Can't we banish him to Texas with a little bit of dignity? At least until somebody puts him on trial? (C'mon Fitzgerald, I know you've got it in you)
____Oh and the next day Obama and crew actually did stuff! So good job! Know who didn't do a good job the next day? Every 24hour news channel. Okay we have a new president. We can either talk about the new policy changes he just signed (like closing Gitmo, putting a choke collar on lobbyists, redefining the Freedom of Information Act, and putting a pay-freeze on some of his staff) or... "OMG Lets do a feature on Michelle's dress!! Did you hear the kids were wearing J. Crew?"

Winning Enemies

Social psychologists say that to win over an enemy, you should ask them for a favor. Typically people will justify their favor to you by liking you more (because it would be foolish to do favors for people you don't like, and nobody likes to feel foolish).

I've just got to say, Obama is a smart man. The move infuriated the gay community, who are offended by Warren's opinions on homosexuality, as well as members of Warren's church, who are offended by Obama's opinions on homosexuality (and abortion) Obama is asking a favor of his enemies. Rick Warren and those who still support him will end up having to defend his friendship to Obama either to themselves or others.

He has also been to a dinner with conservative journalists and will be hosting a dinner in honor of John McCain. He is doing all he can to give a "no hard feelings" vibe. Nice guy or political genious, at least he's doing a good job at it.

My Take on Blagojevich

First of all, what a great name. Rod Blagojevich. That's so great it sounds made up. Second, that hair! I'm not sure if I can say I like it, but I'm certainly in awe.

Anyway, my own first instincts on his move to name a Senator haven't been brought up by any news source I've seen. Blagojevich is a savvy political player (as evidenced by the evidence against him). So lets take a look at his options. He could

A) Not appoint a Senator, like he was told. This would imply he had done something wrong and felt he deserved to be stripped of his office.
Result: His choice for an appointment would not be named, and he would continue going down in flames.
B) Appoint a Senator. This implies he feels he is still deserving of his office (i.e. not guilty). He also appears hard to control and may be an intimidation play. Two possible results:
1. His choice for an appointment will not be named and he continues to go down in flames,
OR 2. His appointment is named, to the chagrin of the powers that be and when Blagojevich goes to court, he can point at it and say "Look! If I was guilty the Senator would not have been accepted. Senator is accepted, therefore I am not guilty." Blagojevich doesn't care who the Senator is. He just wants them to stick. That's why he chose Burris. Burris doesn't have anything to lose, so he will fight for the seat with all he's got, plus he's a black man, which has given the Democrats even more indigestion as some of them are afraid to look racist.

In summary:

Blagojevich has an awesome name. And awesome hair. Also, nothing left to lose but his freedom (and I guess his office). And he's smart. The only way he can WIN is to look credible by getting an appointment to stick. Even if he doesn't escape a guilty verdict, he's at least gotten his revenge on the people who are taking him down.

Burris is kind of a dupe. A pawn more hapless than Sara Palin. Also, has little to lose and a lot to gain.

These two people are going down or staying put together. Blagojevich knows what he's doing and made an evil genious pick to take down with him (or pull him back up, we'll see).

Ten Reasons I Will Not Miss 2008

10. Large Hadron Collider - The good news: It didn't suck the world into a black hole. But it did break. After only 9 days of functioning.

9. Big Name Deaths - Namely Tim Russert- journalist for MSNBC, Heath Ledger- actor, Benazir Bhutto - president of Pakistan was assassinated by al-Qaeda to be succeeded by her husband (technically 4 days before 2008), Mark Felt - aka Deepthroat and others

8. Russia v. Georgia - A small yet very real war broke out between Russian and Georgia this year in early August. The troops have been called off now, but tensions remain as the two countries squabble over oil, civilian deaths and their conflicted history.

7. Sara Palin - I never want to hear her talk again. Unfortunantly she's still one of the most popular republicans, despite arguably cementing John McCain's loss.

6. Hackers - One of the most under-reported stories of the year, foreign hackers cracked the CERN computer system, both presidential campaigns, the White House and the Defense Department this year.

5. Torture - We did it. Dick Cheney has admitted to supporting water-boarding. Investigations are currently being called for about possible/probable war crimes commited by the United States involving torture of prisoners.

4. Oh Fuck, The Economy - In case you didn't notice, the economy tanked. After a creeping recession had already taken root before summer, and the federal takeover of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, September brought the failure, sale or crisis of several large banks including Washington Mutual, Morgan Stanely and Wachovia. An emergency bailout was organized for the banking industry and rushed through congress. The auto industry was soon to follow.

3. Oh Fuck, The Economy Local Edition - People are getting laid off everywhere. National unemployment was 6.7% in November with rates even higher in vulnerable areas including 8.4% in California and South Carolina, 7.9% in North Carolina and a whopping 9.6 in Michigan and 9.3 in Rhode Island (thats nearly one in 10 people if you're doing the math)

2. Terrorist Attacks in Mumbai - In November terrorists attacked the Indian city, killed at least 164 people and eventually held hostages in landmark luxury hotels. The attacks not only resulted in loss of life, but have helped stir up animosity between India and Pakistan. Things are still tense, and some fear conflict. Update(12/26/08): Pakistani troops have been positioned near the border in preparation for a possible invasion.


1. Prop 8 - A proposition put on the ballot in California and largely funded by conservative religious groups like the Morman Church passed on election day, Nov. 4. The proposition took away the right for gay couples to marry in the state and struck a severe blow to the gay rights movement. Protests and the occasional riot have been springing up all over the country.

(Vice)Presidential Puppy Update!

The Obama family is being all boring and slow about picking a doggie but look at Joe Biden's new German Shepherd! Puppies for everybody!!

daww.

No name yet. Apparently he's waiting on his grandkids to pick a name.

post race post race thoughts

(Originally written Nov. 6th)

Ok, newsflash: Obama is half black. We all knew this right? I mean... its kind of obvious (unless you got convinced he was muslim) and there was a lot of discussion pre-election about the Bradley effect (where white people SAID they would vote for a black guy to look good, but then didn't actually do it) but nobody, especially Obama himself, really harped on the fact that "hey look, this black dude is doing really well". People said "Barack Obama is doing really well".

What I mean to say is just what the massive crowd of my fellow South Carolinians at the victory speech of the democratic primary said: "Race doesn't matter". I was moved to tears by that speech, not because of the speech itself so much, but the reaction of the crowd. Didn't we JUST take down our confederate flag in 2000? I hate to play off of a negative stereotype of my state but honestly, when South Carolina says that race doesn't matter, start listening.

And so, after winning South Carolina, and the nomination, and the presidency, everyone has started talking about race again! The news anchors were saying "how great this is for an african-american." What about "how great for a democrat?", "how great for an underdog?", "how great for an idealist?", "How great for a man who has worked his way up from the bottom?", "how great for any American to win an election by such a historically HUGE margin?". I understand it is a great achievement for African-Americans and I do not mean to state by any insinuation that that's not true. I just think that this is more of an indication of the transition from race being an issue to a non-issue than an indication that this one man has overcome that issue all on his own.

I had come to appreciate the fact that Obama is essentially post-race. This in itself is a milestone, more of a milestone in fact than if race had really been acknowledged. The fact that nobody really thought it was a big deal says SO MUCH MORE about the state of American society than if people thought it was a problem, and overcame their bigotry to vote for Obama. Bigotry didn't even come into play (ok I know there are assholes out there still playing that card, I'm talking about the vast majority of Americans who apparently know its crap). I mean... you can't get more equality than not even needing to acknowledge race. I think it is pretty wonderful that an individual's race has little to no impact on what the American people think of them.


Sooo... does race matter? Do I not understand this because I'm not a minority? Is the media suddenly harping on it just because it is history or because it suddenly matters? Is Obama really "post race" the way I think he is?

Puppies!

As much as I love to resist the pull of emotion in favor of reason when it comes to things like politics, I am PUMPED about the Obama puppy! Ever since he promised one to his girls on election night I have been totally captivated. The secret, dark evil part of me wants him to get a stereotypically black dog just to completely challenge anyone to make fun of him. The rest of me just wants to see a cute puppy! Good lord how did I get so wrapped up in this?

Apparently I'm not the only one. At his first press conference after the election he got questions from reporters about it when they were supposed to be focused on the economy. Obama responded with the concerns of his family on this "pressing issue" and in the process referred to himself as a mutt (maybe he shares my secret dark evil sense of humor about what breed they should get). There's even www.nameobamaspuppy.com (Bar(ac)k the vote!).

It's so cute I can't stand it. Even if I have to put up my "refusing to be swayed by emotional news stories" hat for a while. OOohshapuppy!!!

First Post! Dr. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita

I have some quirky ideas about philosophy and how everything (and I really mean everything) works. Mostly I think that everything is mathematical, and more complex than we can really comprehend. Enter theoretical physics. I'm sure I'll write more about this later. Anyway, this being the basis for my fundamental belief on how the universe works, I was very interested to see the ad for the new History Channel special on "The Next Nostradamus". According to the commercial he has come up with a formula (here's that math) that predicts events.

To the web!

Apparently this man is Dr. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita of New York University, and he is not some new bible code weirdo, but a game theorist. He has spent 25 years developing a computer program to predict international events. The CIA uses him as a resource and according most sources, he's right 90 percent of the time. I don't know what they used to define right and wrong, so take that with a grain of salt, but this guy has really caught my attention.

Read much more about him at Good Magazine here

If there is one overriding mathematical law dictating the universe, maybe this guy has cracked a part of it. I'll watch the show and do a little more digging and probably post about this one again.